According to Yonhap News Agency, on the afternoon of the 26th, South Korea added 284 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia that day, with a total of more than 1,000 people diagnosed, reaching 1,261!

 

The situation of the Korean epidemic is not optimistic. Once South Korea "falls", it will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the world's electronics industry. South Korea's dominant industries are not only shipbuilding, but two of its semiconductor companies; Samsung and SK Hynix accounted for more than 74% of the global semiconductor market in 2017. The wireless communication equipment industry and display industry are also their global leaders. In terms of mobile phones, Samsung OLED screens, Samsung chip manufacturing and foundry, and memory, once the production is reduced, it will inevitably pose a huge challenge to the normal industrial chain. Not to mention the iPhone 12 released in the third quarter, even the next Samsung S20 series and other domestic flagship models will be affected by production capacity.

 

South Korea exports a large amount of semiconductor materials to China. If South Korea cannot control the epidemic, domestic companies will not be able to start work.

 

In view of the fact that the current epidemic in Japan and South Korea has not been effectively controlled, experts and institutions believe that the number of enterprises affected by the epidemic will continue to increase, and the global semiconductor industry chain may be affected. At the same time, some industries in China will also step up research and development, and import substitution is expected to This outbreak accelerated.

 

Affected enterprises may continue to increase

 

In South Korea, Hyundai Motor ’s plant in South Korea has been forced to suspend production due to component shortages. Samsung ’s mobile phone production line plant in Yuwei, South Korea (near Daegu City, where the epidemic is most severe), was shut down after a new case of pneumonia was diagnosed on February 22. In a week, the factories of chips and display panels (previous steps) in other regions were temporarily unaffected.

 

South Korea is a powerhouse of the semiconductor industry. The importance of the upstream of the electronics industry chain cannot be ignored. Analysts believe that the semiconductor industry chain may bear the brunt of the impact of the epidemic on the economy.

 

According to Statista data, Samsung and SK Hynix respectively occupy 12.5% ​​and 5.4% of the global semiconductor market, ranking second and third respectively. In terms of flash memory, the two companies together accounted for more than 70% of the DRAM market in the fourth quarter of last year. Industry insiders said that South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix are global storage companies. If the new coronary pneumonia epidemic spreads further in South Korea, the price of global storage chips will accelerate.

 

Domestic accelerated import substitution

 

For the prevention of losses caused by the escalation of the Japan-Korea epidemic, it is also urgent to find alternative companies and products as soon as possible. Experts and institutions believe that under such circumstances, Chinese companies will also step up research and development, and the pace of import substitution is expected to accelerate.

 

At present, although the growth rate of the global semiconductor industry has greatly slowed down, the sales growth rate in the first three quarters of 2019 is negative, but the Chinese market has grown positively during the same period. Chuan Cai Securities analyst Zhou Yu said that if Japanese and Korean manufacturers' production capacity suffers, semiconductor storage prices will rise, and the localization of semiconductor materials is expected to accelerate.

 

CITIC Jiantou's chemical industry analysis team believes that if Japanese or Korean semiconductor companies suspend or reduce production, it will open a time window for import substitution for domestic material manufacturers, and stronger manufacturers may have the possibility to compete in overseas markets. In addition, Zhongtai Securities believes that under the spread of the epidemic, import substitution in several other industries in China is also expected to accelerate.

 

Source: China Semiconductor Forum